BioDieselNow - Renewable biodiesel fuel

dereckbc:

I am holding for the Accord diesel to replace my current one. BMW has a diesel now in the USA?

Soon, along with a whole host of other manufactorers. Just hold off for a few years and the list of diesels to choose from will be sweet, especially with $5.00 gas.

soypwrd:

Soon, along with a whole host of other manufactorers. Just hold off for a few years and the list of diesels to choose from will be sweet...

I hope that is true, but have doubts and geting frustrated. I have montored HMC for the Accord release. It first started as a 2008 release. When 2008 came it was pushed back to 2009. Now I hear 2010.

What I suspect is really a pet peave I have with the enviromental group. They keep changing the goal post so to speak. By that I mean the Tier II Bin 5 requirements keep getting progressively stricter that manufactures cannot keep up with. To me this goes all the way back to the 70's, when rules and regulation shut down domestic oil & gas exploration/refinery/production, nuclear power, etc. We just keep shooting ourselves in the foot So the end result is we demanded foreign dependance on oil, and have 30 years to catch up on nuclear power deployment. It is insane what we do to ourself to satisfy a minority demands.

soypwrd:

dereckbc:

The Market will decide, it is never wrong...

Relying on the "market" to make decissions for our well being is how we got into this mess. Now if the market had full and true cost accounting it might be a different story. 

It would be nice if those who push the Green Agenda would use true cost accounting such as the True cost and aim of Kyoto to the United States.

It would also be nice if the Democrat candidates would  use true cost accounting when promoting their big nationalized healthcare plans and other give aways instead of just saying Tax The Rich.

I agree totally cheap. I'd like to see all of the full and true costs of everything laid out and put on the price of purchase.

soypwrd:

Relying on the "market" to make decissions for our well being is how we got into this mess. Now if the market had full and true cost accounting it might be a different story. 

In spite of record prices and the US economic slowdown, the IEA said oil demand would be relatively robust this year, boosted by emerging economies such as China and the Middle East.

World oil demand will grow by 1.7M barrels a day this year, up from a 0.9M b/d in 2007, according to the IEA. Demand will reach an annual average of 87.5M b/d, down just 80K b/d from its February estimate.

17/9= 1.89x increase in demand in =one= year.

It is logical to expect prices to go up accordingly unless supply can also be increased by 1.89x just as quickly.  It can't be.  In fact, world wide petrochemical production is presently close to maxed out. 

So a good first guess at the "fair" average price of oil in 2008 is 1.89x the 2007 average price plus modifiers for the US dollar's change in value compared to 2007.

This will result in a high estimate.  But nonetheless a reasonable estimate.

Looks like I may have been too conservative with my $115 US pb projection for 2008 average crude prices...

Oil closed over ~$110 US pb today.

 That, and the lack of takers, makes me further reconsider my decision to sell my Jetta wagon. Maybe I hold onto it.

natescape:

 That, and the lack of takers, makes me further reconsider my decision to sell my Jetta wagon. Maybe I hold onto it.

What is Blue Book on your TDI wagon?

According to KBB, private retail is around $11k. I'm selling for $15k, because KBB isn't quite reflecting the marketplace and I have some extras that it can't account for (winter package, 2 sets of wheels, RocketChip II and Sprint injectors, etc). It's listed in the BDN classifieds. I'm only selling it because it's so valuable, and because I need a family hauler (minivan).

natescape:

According to KBB, private retail is around $11k. I'm selling for $15k, because KBB isn't quite reflecting the marketplace and I have some extras that it can't account for (winter package, 2 sets of wheels, RocketChip II and Sprint injectors, etc). It's listed in the BDN classifieds. I'm only selling it because it's so valuable, and because I need a family hauler (minivan).

Maybe one of the reasons you are not getting much in the way of queries is because people can't justify the $4K difference between KBB and what you are asking?  If I took an $11K version of your car and then bought winter package + 2 sets of wheels (how old are they BTW?) + RocketChip II + Sprint injectors, how much would I have to spend total to "duplicate" your car?

If the answer is less than your asking price, it is likely that you are asking too much.

 Yeah, I know. But that's what it'll take to sell it. 

$135 per bbl and its may 22nd......

Oil will likely make a top this week, at least on the short term. If I traded oil, I'd buy some puts here.

@ $135/bbl marketplace, that offer a whole lot of renew energy incentive.

IMO, more please. Plus... lets start adding the LCA tax of carbon/other pollution that crude costs.

natescape:

According to KBB, private retail is around $11k. I'm selling for $15k, because KBB isn't quite reflecting the marketplace and I have some extras that it can't account for (winter package, 2 sets of wheels, RocketChip II and Sprint injectors, etc). It's listed in the BDN classifieds. I'm only selling it because it's so valuable, and because I need a family hauler (minivan).

Try eBay, Nate.  I've recently been watching a slew of TDI auctions there and the prices are very high, even for older vehicles.

ccheek:

$135 per bbl and its may 22nd......

 

BTW ... I recall Nate sold his TDI already.  

(quick imitation of an auctioneer)

135 135 135 do i hear 145 i have 145, 155, going 155, this is prime oil folks, comes with its own barrel, 165, i have 165, 175, 175 looking for 175, 175 it is, 205, 205 is the going ....... I have 205, 305, 305 for black gold, texas tea, 305 from the man in the back 505, supplies are not endless folks 1015 i have from the pretty filly up front 4015 do i.. yes i have 4015, 6015 6015 looking for 6015.......

and in other news today, the newly issued OIL Certifcate has finally replaced the silver certificate as America's basis for how much money they can print. American currently owes 900 trillion to the world bank and the new notes come in denominations of 1, 2, 5 and 10 cents bearing the likeness of Presidents Hussein, Oshamalamadingdong, Da-DoWopWop and BaybaybabaybabowbabowbowbowbabadingdingdingdingdadingdadongdongBlue MOON.

Protestors are chanting in the streets in perfect unison and what I must personally observe as great harmony, that the US should indeed return to a monetary system based upon something produced in our own country, however most of the protestors have been shouted down by the new genre of music blasted from stationary sattelites orbiting above Utah (sorry guys, just picked a state). The new genre of music is known as shiite-gangsta-shia-style-sandhip-rapparappa-hoponoverfoafody-pop-a-cap, or sgsssrhpac (pronounced shuggarspak).

and after the break, weather, where we can honestly say we are the only news station on earth to be 100% spot on with the weather 3% of the time.

Rich:

ccheek:

$135 per bbl and its may 22nd......

 

We've passed the scary area now that oil has doubled in one year and have now entered the economic danger zone. (last year was $65/barrel)

Not quite accurate.  The =average= 2007 price of crude was ~$67 US pb.   However, crude prices were $99.29 US pb for December futures in NYC on November 21, 2007.  Crude prices fell below $60/barrel in the early part of 2007, then rose steeply, reaching $92/barrel by October 2007 and $99.29/barrel on November 21, 2007.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_price_increases_of_2004_and_2005

(actually is "Oil Price increases since 2003")

So while I agree with you that crude prices have shot up far enough and fast enough for it to be economically dangerous, the actual increase since late 2007 is more like 130/99= 1.31 or +31%.

Since we are only ~2/5 of the way thru 2008, it is difficult to project what the average price for 2008 will be.  It is clear that it is highly plausible for 2008 average crude prices to end up being 2x the 2007 average, but to assume so at this point is just that, an assumption.  Not an established fact. 

Just wait until the IEA's new report on global oil supply comes out in the fall.

... The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world's top 400 oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude supplies could be far tighter than previously thought. ...

 Link

SmokeStack:

Just wait until the IEA's new report on global oil supply comes out in the fall.

... The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world's top 400 oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude supplies could be far tighter than previously thought. ...

 Link

Peak Oil, anyone?

The word I'm getting from folks who have a decent chance of knowing what they are talking about is that OPEC and most other major crude suppliers =can not= increase their production of existing assets by much if at all.  They are at or close to peak production.

So the ramp up in crude prices can be explained, in decreasing order of cause, using

1= exponentially increasing demand plus almost flat supply.  Yes Virginia; peak oil production is real and we are seeing it.

2= The anticipated cost of harvesting the next generation of petroleum reserves.  If the cost to harvest a barrel of oil is $70+, then it is impossible for market selling prices to be that.  $100+ US pb crude is here to stay unless someone finds a sufficiently large, unexpectedly cheap, harvestable crude supply.   

3= the weakness of the US dollar.  Since the USA is no longer and will never again be the world's largest consumer of crude, crude should no longer be priced in US dollars.  If Crude was priced in Chinese Yuen (sp?) as it should be, it would reduce some of the price pressure.

4= governments buying crude instead of private concerns.  Private organizations can not reasonably compete with central banks in the marketplace, and central banks have a different definition of "reasonable price" when their government is planning on using large quantities of state subsidized petroleum to fuel economic development from 3rd world to 1st world conditions.

...and almost all of these factors are more due to China than any other country.