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Latest post 10-07-2008 10:44 AM by ATBio. 112 replies.
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07-09-2008 09:21 AM
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natescape


- Joined on 01-14-2002
- Between Providence and Cape Cod
- Posts 4,985
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The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
What do you folks think? My biggest issue is his reliance on natual gas. We simply don't have that much... and while the plan mentions biofuels, it never actually details any of it.
America is addicted to foreign oil.
It's
an addiction that threatens our economy, our environment and our
national security. It touches every part of our daily lives and ties
our hands as a nation and a people. The addiction has worsened for decades and now it's reached a point of crisis.
In 1970, we imported 24% of our oil.
Today it's nearly 70% and growing.
As
imports grow and world prices rise, the amount of money we send to
foreign nations every year is soaring. At current oil prices, we will
send $700 billion dollars out of the country this year alone — that's
four times the annual cost of the Iraq war. Projected
over the next 10 years the cost will be $10 trillion — it will be the
greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind.
America
uses a lot of oil. Every day 85 million barrels of oil are produced
around the world. And 21 million of those are used here in the United
States.
That's 25% of the world's oil demand. Used by just 4% of the world's population.
Can't we just produce more oil?
World
oil production peaked in 2005. Despite growing demand and an
unprecedented increase in prices, oil production has fallen over the
last three years. Oil is getting more expensive to produce, harder to
find and there just isn't enough of it to keep up with demand.
The simple truth is that cheap and easy oil is gone.
What's the good news?
The United States is the Saudi Arabia of wind power.
Studies
from around the world show that the Great Plains states are home to the
greatest wind energy potential in the world — by far.
The
Department of Energy reports that 20% of America's electricity can come
from wind. North Dakota alone has the potential to provide power for
more than a quarter of the country.
Today's
wind turbines stand up to 410 feet tall, with blades that stretch 148
feet in length. The blades collect the wind's kinetic energy. In one
year, a 3-megawatt wind turbine produces as much energy as 12,000
barrels of imported oil.
Wind
power currently accounts for 48 billion kWh of electricity a year in
the United States — enough to serve more than 4.5 million households.
That is still only about 1% of current demand, but the potential of
wind is much greater.
A
2005 Stanford University study found that there is enough wind power
worldwide to satisfy global demand 7 times over — even if only 20% of
wind power could be captured.
Building
wind facilities in the corridor that stretches from the Texas panhandle
to North Dakota could produce 20% of the electricity for the United
States at a cost of $1 trillion. It would take another $200 billion to
build the capacity to transmit that energy to cities and towns.
That's
a lot of money, but it's a one-time cost. And compared to the $700
billion we spend on foreign oil every year, it's a bargain.
An economic revival for rural America.
Developing wind power is an investment in rural America.
To witness the economic promise of wind energy, look no further than Sweetwater, Texas.
Sweetwater
was typical of many small towns in middle-America. With a shortage of
good jobs, the youth of Sweetwater were leaving in search of greater
opportunities. And the town's population dropped from 12,000 to under
10,000.
When a large wind
power facility was built outside of town, Sweetwater experienced a
revival. New economic opportunity brought the town back to life and the
population has grown back up to 12,000.
In
the Texas panhandle, just north of Sweetwater, is the town of Pampa,
where T. Boone Pickens' Mesa Power is currently building the largest
wind farm in the world.
At
4,000 megawatts — the equivalent combined output of four large
coal-fire plants — the production of the completed Pampa facility will
double the wind energy output of the United States.
In
addition to creating new construction and maintenance jobs, thousands
of Americans will be employed to manufacture the turbines and blades.
These are high skill jobs that pay on a scale comparable to aerospace
jobs.
Plus, wind turbines
don't interfere with farming and grazing, so they don't threaten food
production or existing local economies.
A cheap new replacement for foreign oil.
Natural gas and bio-fuels are the only domestic energy sources used for transportation.
Cleaner
Natural gas is the cleanest transportation fuel available today.
According
to the California Energy Commission, critical greenhouse gas emissions
from natural gas are 23% lower than diesel and 30% lower than gasoline.
Natural gas vehicles (NGV)
are already available and combine top performance with low emissions.
The natural gas Honda Civic GX is rated as the cleanest production
vehicle in the world.
According to NGVAmerica, there are more than 7 million NGVs in use worldwide, but only 150,000 of those are in the United States.
The
EPA estimates that vehicles on the road account for 60% of carbon
monoxide pollution and around one-third of hydrocarbon and nitrogen
oxide emissions in the United States. As federal and state emissions
laws become more stringent, many requirements will be unattainable with
conventionally fueled vehicles.
Since
natural gas is significantly cleaner than petroleum, NGVs are
increasing in popularity. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach
recently announced that 16,800 old diesel trucks will be replaced, and
half of the new vehicles will run on alternatives such as natural gas.
Cheaper
Natural
gas is significantly less expensive than gasoline or diesel. In places
like Utah and Oklahoma, prices are less than $1 a gallon. To see
fueling stations and costs in your area, check out cngprices.com.
Domestic
Natural
gas is our country's second largest energy resource and a vital
component of our energy supply. 98% of the natural gas used in the
United States is from North America. But 70% of our oil is purchased
from foreign nations.
Natural
gas is one of the cleanest, safest and most useful forms of energy —
residentially, commercially and industrially. The natural gas industry
has existed in the United States for over 100 years and continues to
grow.
Domestic natural gas
reserves are twice that of petroleum. And new discoveries of natural
gas and ongoing development of renewable biogas are continually adding
to existing reserves.
While it is a cheap, effective and versatile fuel, less than 1% of natural gas is currently used for transportation.
The Mechanics
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1. Generate 20% of our electricity from wind power. |
2. Use wind power to replace natural gas. |
3. Use natural gas as a transportation fuel — replacing foreign oil. |
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We
currently use natural gas to produce 22% of our electricity. Harnessing
the power of wind to generate electricity will give us the flexibility
to shift natural gas away from electricity generation and put it to use
as a transportation fuel — reducing our dependence on foreign oil by
more than one-third.
How do we get it done?
The
Pickens Plan is a bridge to the future — a blueprint to reduce foreign
oil dependence by harnessing domestic energy alternatives, and buy us
time to develop even greater new technologies.
Building
new wind generation facilities and better utilizing our natural gas
resources can replace more than one-third of our foreign oil imports in
10 years. But it will take leadership.
On January 20th, 2009, a new President will take office.
We're organizing behind the Pickens Plan now to ensure our voices will be heard by the next administration.
Together
we can raise a call for change and set a new course for America's
energy future in the first hundred days of the new presidency —
breaking the hammerlock of foreign oil and building a new domestic
energy future for America with a focus on sustainability.
You can start changing America's future today by supporting the Pickens Plan. Join now.
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old300D


- Joined on 08-14-2003
- Denver, CO
- Posts 2,729
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
I like the emphasis on wind generation, but a glaring hole is the lack of vision for hybrid/electric vehicle development. There is also large support for the existing corporate structure in petroleum, which cuts both ways -- it's unlikely to get support for any energy plan without them, but it's also unlikely to get any significant progress with them.
This comment has been crossposted at AT&T: 611 Folsom Street, San Francisco, CA -- Room 641A.
Offshore drilling: Mental relief for a mental recession.
'05 Liberty
'83 240D
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Mike Briggs


- Joined on 09-09-2002
- Dover, NH
- Posts 8,464
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
natescape:
A 2005 Stanford University study found that there is enough wind power worldwide to satisfy global demand 7 times over — even if only 20% of wind power could be captured.
The problem, as another thread here explains, is that the tremendous variability of wind power creates a significant load-matching demand for the power grid. Ultimately, that will limit the pecentage of our energy that we can get from wind significantly - 20% would be an optimistic goal, without a massive increase in bulk energy storage (and even with that, we probably couldn't go much above 20%).
Of course, he ignores the fact that oil is not used (much) for producing electricity. Reducing oil consumption means replacing it as a transportation fuel. FOr wind power or any other type of electricity to help there, we need electric vehicles. FOrtunately,the battery technology appears to now be ready for prime time - but he ignores that issue entirely.
Not true.
Cleaner
Natural gas is the cleanest transportation fuel available today.
Sure, if you ignore greenhouse gas emissions (which of course the EPA does). Of course, how realistic is your assessment though if you ignore the primary pollutant?
That's like saying coal power plants are clean - if you ignore greenhouse emissions, mercury, sulfurous, radioactive, particulate, and all the other emissions.
According to the California Energy Commission, critical greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas are 23% lower than diesel and 30% lower than gasoline.
What do they count as "critical" greenhouse gas emissions?
Natural gas vehicles (NGV) are already available and combine top performance with low emissions. The natural gas Honda Civic GX is rated as the cleanest production vehicle in the world.
According to NGVAmerica, there are more than 7 million NGVs in use worldwide, but only 150,000 of those are in the United States.
Of course, since the US can not produce enough NG to meet our current demand, shifting from imported oil use for transportation to natural gas for transportation would just mean replacing imported oil with imported natural gas.
Anyone who thinks *that* is a solution to "energy dependence" clearly isn't thinking straight, or is just trying to dupe you.
Since natural gas is significantly cleaner than petroleum, NGVs are increasing in popularity. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach recently announced that 16,800 old diesel trucks will be replaced, and half of the new vehicles will run on alternatives such as natural gas.
No, NGVs are "increasing in popularity" because there are massive tax credits and federal grants to pay for it. Our own university was earmarked around $1 million to pay for a natural gas filling station and some natural gas buses (we actually turned it down though eventually, when many of us pointed out the folly in encouraging greater use of natural gas as a means of reducing energy dependence).
Natural gas is significantly less expensive than gasoline or diesel. In places like Utah and Oklahoma, prices are less than $1 a gallon. To see fueling stations and costs in your area, check out cngprices.com.
*at the moment* it is cheaper. Significant federal credits and subsidies make a big difference.
Natural gas is our country's second largest energy resource and a vital component of our energy supply. 98% of the natural gas used in the United States is from North America. But 70% of our oil is purchased from foreign nations.
That is only because natural gas consumption is small compared to oil consumption - over the past 100 years, we've used a lot more oil than natural gas. Natural gas is a limited resource just like oil.
Natural gas is one of the cleanest, safest and most useful forms of energy —
That is laughably absurd.
While it is a cheap, effective and versatile fuel, less than 1% of natural gas is currently used for transportation.
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1. Generate 20% of our electricity from wind power. |
2. Use wind power to replace natural gas. |
3. Use natural gas as a transportation fuel — replacing foreign oil. | For some reason I can't delete this:
How do we get it done?
The Pickens Plan is a bridge to the future — a blueprint to reduce foreign oil dependence by harnessing domestic energy alternatives, and buy us time to develop even greater new technologies.
It s a plan to provide massive subsidies for companies that don't need it, so they can make huge profits from depletable resources while shifting our dependence from one limited resource to another one. Excellent.
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froggy


- Joined on 03-07-2006
- wi
- Posts 2,184
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
natescape:
Methane can be made using existing technology and prototype technology that is waiting for the market #'s. Methane/gas systems including hydrogen are easy to create on a distributive level. Liquid fuels have been problematic on a distributive level.
Simply, TBoone ran the numbers and liked what he saw. Im sure he could afford the best and the brightest to help him decide on where he can make the most $ in the shortest amount of time. Apparently he decided to stay with energy sector and focus on the # rich technologies.
flectere si nequeo superos, Achaeronta movebo! -Virgil
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SmokeStack


- Joined on 09-30-2004
- Posts 950
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
Pickens is a facinating character. At least he's got something, his visions is clearer than what I hear from polititians. Also, it would reduce carbon dioxide emmissions compared to our current 'model,' since the natgas would be theoretically moved from from power generation to transportation, and 20% of the oil being burned would be displaced. Taken as a whole, Pickens' plan reduces total CO2 emmissions.(if it would play out as he suggests) In that sense it should warm[/s] cool the cockles of Al Gore's heart.
It doesn't really bother me that he is invested in natgas and wind. Pickens has put his money where his mouth is.
One thing he often talks about is applying the Interstate Highway model to power transmission lines, building the infustructure to allow his vision for "wind and solar corridors" to distribute their power. That part especially seems overdue. Nuke plants and such could tie into the 'supergrid' also. If we're going to power vehicles on electricity, we need an improved grid to handle the extra demand.
Just switching the entire transportation fleet to natgas from oil seems too simplistic, but it wouldn't be bad if a percentage of vehicles ran on natgas.....along with gas-electric hybrids......diesels......and pure electric. Diversification is a good first step. If nothing else, Pickens' plan is a start.
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Voltaire


- Joined on 08-08-2007
- Posts 809
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
The Pickings Plan is both incomplete and inaccurate.
Mike Briggs has made the appropriate comments re: reliance on any fossil fuel, NG included.
Others have noted some of the holes in the proposal.
A proposal intended to be a reasonable replacement for the US national energy policy has to cover more ground, and do it more accurately, than the Pickens plan.
More later.
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froggy


- Joined on 03-07-2006
- wi
- Posts 2,184
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
Voltaire: The Pickings Plan is both incomplete and inaccurate.
I think you are missing the point of the 'plan'. He isnt trying to save the whole of the world, he is trying to make money and push forward his agenda. If he was trying to be altruistic, he would give all of his money to something like AIDS research. He is investing in a plan that he has solid numbers and assumptions that he feels are well worth the risk/reward.
He is just plain greedy, good ol' fashion capitalist oil man.
flectere si nequeo superos, Achaeronta movebo! -Virgil
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natescape


- Joined on 01-14-2002
- Between Providence and Cape Cod
- Posts 4,985
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
Oh, he's doing it to make money, no doubt. The main question is how much his effort would actually help...
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cjheap


- Joined on 02-24-2005
- Lone Star
- Posts 2,417
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
natescape:
Oh, he's doing it to make money, no doubt. The main question is how much his effort would actually help...
Not much since even if he were able to double the current capacity of wind generation, it would not offset the current volume of nat gas used in electricity generation.
The answer is Nukes to replace both coal and natural gas electric plants freeing up the natural gas and coal to be liquified for motor fuels. They we would not need to import squat for the ME.
Democracy is Two Wolves and a Lamb Voting on What to Have for Lunch. Liberty is a Well-Armed Lamb Contesting the Vote :: Benjamin Franklin
2003 F250 7.3 Powerstroke
2003 VW Beetle TDI
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Voltaire


- Joined on 08-08-2007
- Posts 809
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
cjheap:
... even if he were able to double the current capacity of wind generation, it would not offset the current volume of nat gas used in electricity generation.
True.
cjheap:The answer is Nukes to replace both coal and natural gas electric plants
As far as EPG, we agree.
cjheap:...freeing up the natural gas and coal to be liquified for motor fuels.
But here we part company. Given our present scientific knowledge, using fossil fuels for transportation is still not smart. Just less stupid than using them for EPG.
Finite supply. exponentially increasing demand. exponentially increasing and potentially irreversible ecological damage.
We should have started transitioning away as much as possible from fossil fuel use in the 1970's after the OPEC crisis.
Now it is going to be more painful. The longer we wait, the more painful it is going to be when we finally do it. And there can be no doubt that sooner or later we are going to have to abandon the use of fossil fuels as much as possible.
If we had started doing the right thing in the 1970's, we would not be in the trouble we are in now. If we somehow avoid doing it now, the trouble our descendents will have to endure will be far worse.
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cjheap


- Joined on 02-24-2005
- Lone Star
- Posts 2,417
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
Voltaire:
cjheap:
... even if he were able to double the current capacity of wind generation, it would not offset the current volume of nat gas used in electricity generation.
True.
cjheap:The answer is Nukes to replace both coal and natural gas electric plants
As far as EPG, we agree.
cjheap:...freeing up the natural gas and coal to be liquified for motor fuels.
But here we part company. Given our present scientific knowledge, using fossil fuels for transportation is still not smart. Just less stupid than using them for EPG.
Finite supply. exponentially increasing demand. exponentially increasing and potentially irreversible ecological damage.
We should have started transitioning away as much as possible from fossil fuel use in the 1970's after the OPEC crisis.
Now it is going to be more painful. The longer we wait, the more painful it is going to be when we finally do it. And there can be no doubt that sooner or later we are going to have to abandon the use of fossil fuels as much as possible.
If we had started doing the right thing in the 1970's, we would not be in the trouble we are in now. If we somehow avoid doing it now, the trouble our descendents will have to endure will be far worse.
If we had kept building nukes from the 70's, we would not have the same set of problems we have today either...We would have a different set of problems. As for Nat gas and coal, there is no short supply and if we were not using it for electricity generation we would have enough to last for over 200 years at projected groth rates. And if you take the coal fired EGP's offline, the carbon footprint you are worried about is miniscule.
Democracy is Two Wolves and a Lamb Voting on What to Have for Lunch. Liberty is a Well-Armed Lamb Contesting the Vote :: Benjamin Franklin
2003 F250 7.3 Powerstroke
2003 VW Beetle TDI
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froggy


- Joined on 03-07-2006
- wi
- Posts 2,184
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
cjheap: If we had kept building nukes from the 70's, we would not have the same set of problems we have today either...We would have a different set of problems. As for Nat gas and coal, there is no short supply and if we were not using it for electricity generation we would have enough to last for over 200 years at projected groth rates. And if you take the coal fired EGP's offline, the carbon footprint you are worried about is miniscule.
Woulda, coulda shoulda. We shouldnt have gone to war with Iraq. We shouldnt have let energy prices fall in the 80's and 90's. We shoulda developed more energy efficient systems in the 80's and 90's. We shoulda built and invested in the R&D of renewable energy... but we didnt. We let pure greed and economics get into the way of a real energy plan. And now here we are in 2008, trying to put lipstick on a pig.
Even tho this thread is not about nukes but about wind... let me digress a bit.
This is the nuke energy shill trying to say nuke is cost competative...
This is greenpeace offering arguments as to why nuke power is not cost competative...
This is what the eggheads say...
I would list what the gov says but that changes as often as does the political winds.
It seems clear to me that nukes have issues that are hard to sort out like, Terrorist danger, cost, waste, location, liability. But it also seems clear to me that we could accomplish a mighty lot with nukes, like co-gen, production of advanced materials (medical) co-production, e' baseload...
In the end... I wish we would simply move to more distributive methods of producing e' like solar and wind.
flectere si nequeo superos, Achaeronta movebo! -Virgil
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natescape


- Joined on 01-14-2002
- Between Providence and Cape Cod
- Posts 4,985
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
IMO, our future energy use has to be a combination of nukes, wind, solar, and biofuels. But, unfortunately, coal will probably be a major player.
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dereckbc


- Joined on 09-18-2006
- Posts 693
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
froggy:
In the end... I wish we would simply move to more distributive methods of producing e' like solar and wind.
Froggy wind and solar are very unreliable, cannot handle they dynamic loads, and no way to store the excess energy. Right now and for the forseable future only Nuke, Coal and NG can provide the base. Wish there was a way around it, but no other energy source exist that can do that.
Dereck In Texas
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froggy


- Joined on 03-07-2006
- wi
- Posts 2,184
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
dereckbc:
Froggy wind and solar are very unreliable, cannot handle they dynamic loads, and no way to store the excess energy.
Ok. But these are engineering and infrastructure issues, not necessarily technical issues. These are issues of economics and political will, not because of any technical issue you have discribed. dereckbc:
Right now and for the forseable future only Nuke, Coal and NG can provide the base. Wish there was a way around it, but no other energy source exist that can do that.
Again, economic issues, not technical. Its because Nuke, coal, NG, petrol have been able to offset its true cost of KWH's. If and when the true cost of 'black energy' is factored in, many large scale energy infrastructure systems will become more viable. This is happening now and whoever the new prez is... will need to embark on many big projects. These projects will include a smart grid, much like the way the fed's needed and built and made america stronger and faster with the Interstate hwy system of the 50's. These projects will include allowing private ppl like TBoone to invest in our future with private funding. These projects will include an energy pricing system that isnt completely market driven but regulated to ensure large scale projects (like TBoone) can retain their true value, energy security for the nation and keeping the $ @ home. These project will also include Wave power, CSP, geothermal heating/cooling on the smaller scale, etc...
Nukes are very expensive/KWH and are not carbon neutral. They are very hard to co-generate onto because of saftey and 'glowing produce or workers' (who would eat a tomato they knew was co-gen'ed from a nuke plant cooling waters?) Nukes are hard to place cuz of nimby as they should be. And lets face it, I dont think its fair to add more debt to our national credit card, this debt being hazardous dangerous and likely much more expensive than is being led on by the shills (there is not one superfund cleanup that goes down in price as time goes on...) nuke waste that could be a liability for 10,000's of years. dereckbc: Right now and for the forseable future
I also somewhat dispute the belief that we need to act like there is a gun pointed to our heads. Sure we need to get on the stick but we do NOT need to start building more baseloads, we need better ways to discribe what you called 'no way around' issues dereckbc: Froggy wind and solar are very unreliable, cannot handle they dynamic loads, and no way to store the excess energy.
These are the problems we need to solve and get on the stick. And there is tremendous amounts of brainpower being trained on these issues with lots of good systems starting to be available. I also think that there are ways to solve some of this in a distributive level, community and even in the home/commercial level by developing smart grid systems from the home up.
And ofcourse my favorite comment that is coming and will blow ppl away... CNT cables... 350x stronger than steel and 1000's of times faster than copper and cheap as turning CO2 into C into CNT's. My guess is that we backfill all this smart grid technology that we are developing and installing in the near term with CNT cable starting in ~ 10yrs.
We could have the CNT space elevator in under 20 if there was more $ into R&D. The SE will be the greatest single project undertaken by man, the biggest one step of our evolution taken yet.
flectere si nequeo superos, Achaeronta movebo! -Virgil
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dereckbc


- Joined on 09-18-2006
- Posts 693
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
OK Froggy I really admire your enthusiasm. I really hope half of what you wish becomes reality. But just how in the heck are you going to make the sun shine and wind blow just right 24 x 365?
IMHO that is not an infrastructure or technical issue, more like a GOD thing.
Again IMO the other things you mention are a bit futuristic Sci-Fi, and a long way off in the futre if possible at all. Until then we have to bridge the gap.
My vision is nuclear backbone, with wind and solar as supplemental peak shaving, and we drive EV's for personnel transportation. All but the battery tech is here now, and the battery tech is only a few years out, about the same time we bring nuke online. Heavy transportation will be via diesel while it last and CTL for the next two or more centuries. The CTL will be made from excess heat from nuke plants. In fact two nuke/CTL plants are being built in the USA right now.
Dereck In Texas
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froggy


- Joined on 03-07-2006
- wi
- Posts 2,184
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Re: The "Pickens Plan" for energy independence
dereckbc: But just how in the heck are you going to make the sun shine and wind blow just right 24 x 365?
IMHO that is not an infrastructure or technical issue, more like a GOD thing.
A smart grid full of infrastructure is designed to not have this problem. Wha... a smart guy like you cant figure this out? Certainly its only a matter of $ and not brainpower, ya?
dereckbc: a bit futuristic Sci-Fi, and a long way off in the futre if possible at all.
That's cuz you havnt been to wisconsin yet, your hanging around oil men too much. Its all that sun and big hair that's confusing you, you need to smell the cool breeze of cow manure fed on sweet northern alfalfa to get a clear head. dereckbc: Until then we have to bridge the gap
there are 2 ways to bridge the gap, KWH's and negawatts. IMO, negawatts are more valuable because the are used over and over again but a KWH is gone today. We can bridge the future by keeping the infrastructure we have, building new infrastructure of green energy and bridging the gap with negawatt plans.
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