‘Dean of Oil Analysts’ Maxwell (Part 1 of 4): Oil Shortages Start in 2010; Peak Oil Hits 2012-2015
flectere si nequeo superos, Achaeronta movebo! -Virgil
sorry I had to move this, I hijacked the thread.
http://biodieselnow.com/forums/t/19826.aspx
Froggy,
What happened to parts 2,3 & 4 of this article. Do you have a link to them?
Cheers,
They were published the following week. Decent stuff, but I wish it had been more informative and less Chicken Little.
natescape: They were published the following week. Decent stuff, but I wish it had been more informative and less Chicken Little.
When a person of that caliber of authority and experience publishes germane to their field of specialization and expertise, it is =always= informative.
If said information sounds like Chicken Little, get worried. Very worried.
How well respected is he? Might he have any ulterior motives for hyping peak oil? Not that I doubt the validity of his credentials or anything, I just think it's always good to make sure someone's on the up-and-up.
Here's an article he wrote on the subject called "The Gathering Storm".
Here's the rest of his article on energy stocks: two | three | four
natescape: How well respected is he? Might he have any ulterior motives for hyping peak oil? Not that I doubt the validity of his credentials or anything, I just think it's always good to make sure someone's on the up-and-up.
Decide for yourself:
CHARLES T. MAXWELL
Educated at Princeton as an undergraduate and Oxford as a graduate, Charles T. Maxwell entered the oil industry in 1957 and worked for a major international oil company for 12 years in the US, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. His background has been in four traditional sectors of the industry—producing, refining, transportation, and marketing. In 1968, Mr. Maxwell joined a well-known Wall Street firm as an oil analyst. In polls taken by Institutional Investor magazine, Mr. Maxwell has been ranked by the US financial institutions as the No. 1 oil analyst for the years 1972, 1974, 1977 and 1981-1986. In addition, for the last 17 years he has been an active member of an Oxford-based organization comprised of OPEC and other industry executives from 30 countries who meet twice a year to discuss trends within the energy industry.
Some later bio:
Mr. Maxwell (age 75) was the Vice Chairman and Senior Energy Strategist of C.J. Lawrence Inc., a member firm of the New York Stock Exchange, for more than twenty-five years, until his retirement in 1997. Mr. Maxwell has acted as a consultant to various oil companies and the United States Government on oil policy matters. He became a Director and Executive Vice President of the Company in July 1997 and in April 2000 Mr. Maxwell became Senior Energy Analyst with Weeden & Co., Greenwich, Connecticut. Mr. Maxwell is a graduate of Princeton University and Oxford University.
His description of his newletter:
Our Mission: To independently analyze, on a fundamental basis, the complete energy sector.
Published by a firm with no investment banking or asset management clients to appease, maxwell@weeden, written exclusively by Charles T. Maxwell, is truly an independent analysis of energy companies and the trends within the sector
IMHO, this guy is "as real as it gets". He is probably =the= best oil industry analyst in the world.
If he says Peak Oil is real and we're heading for a structural, rather than episodic, crude oil crisis, the smart money bets that he is right.
Maxwell worked for a an un-named international oil company for 12 years. (1957 - 1969). Doing what? Since then he has worked on Wall Street.
I find it highly probable that in 2015 you will be singing the praises of another peak oil theory, which will at that time be just a few years away.
forgivenjojo: Maxwell worked for a an un-named international oil company for 12 years. (1957 - 1969). Doing what? Since then he has worked on Wall Street. I find it highly probable that in 2015 you will be singing the praises of another peak oil theory, which will at that time be just a few years away.
Do some googling to find out if you think it matters what oil company he was employed by.
As for what he did, it certainly seems obvious that he was an analyst since that is what he's spent his entire career doing.
I will not be "singing the praises of another peak oil theory" in 2015. I have never and will never be happy about a situation where the lives of millions of humans beings being are at risk due to exposure, starvation, or war.
By 2015, we are either going to have a decent handle on the energy situation, which means practical replacements for fossil fuel use in as many ways as possible, or we are going to be facing massive social and ecological disruption. Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse type stuff in terms of the human suffering involved.
It may not happen in 2015, but if we don't get this under control by then, it is very likely that by 2015 it will be inevitable, unavoidable, and clear for all to see that it is going to happen at some point.
As a person of self-proclaimed great spiritual faith, I'd think you would want to do anything that could be done to avoid the human suffering implied by the "double whammy" of Climate Change plus the crude ol cisis.
Remember what Blaise Pascal said about logical reasoning with regards to matters of faith or other issues that can not be empirically tested. The consequences of being wrong on this are so horrible that it should give pause to all of us.
He probably cried wolf for the last 50 years and every time , our technology found more reserves and recovery techniques.
And working for Wall Street, I question his stake in ++**+_) FEAR+_))(*&* and the speculation that follows.
Democracy is Two Wolves and a Lamb Voting on What to Have for Lunch. Liberty is a Well-Armed Lamb Contesting the Vote :: Benjamin Franklin 2003 F250 7.3 Powerstroke 2003 VW Beetle TDI
If you do not like what Maxwell wrote try this one:-
Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash
Slippery: If you do not like what Maxwell wrote try this one:- Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash
I can not express how much I hope everyone reads stuff like this and truly understands the implications.
No matter what your social or economic status, no matter what your politics, no matter what your job, this =will= affect you, your loved ones, and your community.
Profoundly.
Already did and it is no different since the claims Chicken Little . He based his claims on outdated data.
But if you want to stop using anything that is an oil product, knock your self out. That leaves more for me .
cjheap: Slippery: If you do not like what Maxwell wrote try this one:- Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash Already did and it is no different since the claims Chicken Little . He based his claims on outdated data. But if you want to stop using anything that is an oil product, knock your self out. That leaves more for me .
Well, this guy has bonafides that easily eclipse any you have shown. But let's play anyway.
You claim his conclusions are wrong because they are based on outdated data. Please present what you consider to be the correct and up to date data. I'll even pass it along to some professionals I know and post their analysis of it and their conclusions based on it here on BDN.
OK, so lets combine both sides of the argument into a new slogan :-
The sky is falling,
Quick,
Grab a prop,
And hold it up.
Why don't you post up yours Voltaire? What are the qualifications you received for free from US taxpayers?
Voltaire: cjheap: Slippery: If you do not like what Maxwell wrote try this one:- Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash Already did and it is no different since the claims Chicken Little . He based his claims on outdated data. But if you want to stop using anything that is an oil product, knock your self out. That leaves more for me . Well, this guy has bonafides that easily eclipse any you have shown. But let's play anyway. You claim his conclusions are wrong because they are based on outdated data. Please present what you consider to be the correct and up to date data. I'll even pass it along to some professionals I know and post their analysis of it and their conclusions based on it here on BDN.
I agree with Maxwell. I agree with the evidence he has presented. So does most of Industry. That's why $billions are being spent on fossil fuel replacements.
You and those like you are in the minority. Therefore the burden of proof is on you and others holding the minority opinion.
Just like anything else, changing the majority opinion or status quo is the responsibility of those not agreeing with it. It is not the responsibility of those in the majority to defend it from those in the minority unless the minority can mount a challenge to it.
Bring evidence to the table explaining why the majority are wrong or accept reality as it is now.
Pathetic.
What is your profession? You obviously do not have a scientific background.
Science is not a democratic election. We do not vote on what the truth is. You are buying into a hypotheses that is unproven so it is up to you to make the case.
And, since we have not had a VOTE, your claim of majority is also just a claim and not supported by fact.
Voltaire: I agree with Maxwell. I agree with the evidence he has presented. So does most of Industry. That's why $billions are being spent on fossil fuel replacements. You and those like you are in the minority. Therefore the burden of proof is on you and others holding the minority opinion. Just like anything else, changing the majority opinion or status quo is the responsibility of those not agreeing with it. It is not the responsibility of those in the majority to defend it from those in the minority unless the minority can mount a challenge to it. Bring evidence to the table explaining why the majority are wrong or accept reality as it is now.
[quote
But if you want to stop using anything that is an oil product, knock your self out. That leaves more for me .quote]
So having read this paper end to end and EVERY reference noted in blue, you are of the opinion that this is a beat up and there is no such thing as peak oil and none of the people writing any of the articles know what they are talking about.
Come on mate, take your hand off it. You are entitled to believe what you like but if you cannot see the writing on the wall then you are an ostrich - get your head out of the sand.
You do not need to have any professional credentials to understand what the experts are saying, you just need to be able to read.